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You may be interested in the following theory concerning the periodic appearance of depression in almost all branches of trade.
Experience shows that the most probable cause of this common trouble is that prices have suddenly fallen, after a period of speculation during which prices have been unusually high.
The high prices occasioned during the period of speculation may have resulted from the expectation of a shortage in the supply of some particular commodity, or some other similar cause.
Eager buying helps to produce the expected rise in prices, and the first buyers seem to have the ability to make huge profits.
Their success encourages others, and the speculative spirit spreads to all commodities.
Borrowers use all their credit, bankers are willing to lend, and a general spirit of recklessness prevails.
After a while, however, the upward trend of prices ceases.
When those who hold stocks wish to realize, a reaction comes and prices begin to fall.
They start falling so rapidly that everyone seems to be losing.
Credit is obtained only with great difficulty.
No one will part with ready money, or postpone his claim to it.
Merchants cannot meet their obligations, and many firms fail because they are unable to obtain the credit to which they are accustomed.
This is what we call a commercial crisis.
In extreme cases there is added a financial panic as groundless as the former over confidence and money is borrowed for short periods at a ruinous rate of interest.
Prices of commodities and stocks then fail as much below the usual level as they had risen
that level during the period of inflation.